The development of LED lighting will push up the demand for related equipment and materials. Graphical sapphire wafer substrate (PSS) technology has been favored by most manufacturers because it can improve LED brightness. Therefore, with 2013, LED industry has accelerated the production of products for general lighting applications, PSS wafer etching and plasma tool requirements. It will also climb.
According to statistics, although LED has not entered the general lighting market on a large scale, the latest equipment demand for manufacturing lighting devices has reached a peak in the past two years. From 2010 to 2012, LED manufacturers spent 1.9 billion, 1.7 billion and 600 million dollars on advanced manufacturing equipment.
It is foreseeable that in the second half of 2013, the industry will start investing in LED equipment. Therefore, in 2014, LED equipment will experience substantial growth again, but its growth will be limited, and it is likely to be the last large investment in the LED industry. cycle. After that, the market for production equipment will shrink, and the replacement of lighting equipment will be the main driver.
The next wave of equipment investment can be seen as the lighting industry's preparation for the ultimate application of traditional lighting, in the near future, this investment will lead to a substantial increase in LED semiconductor material chip revenue - in 2012 ~ In 2018, the overall wafer shipments will grow by nearly four times. Among them, the general lighting chip growth is strong. After 2018, the proportion of LEDs in general lighting applications will grow from near zero to 50%, and LEDs will account for 80% of all lighting tools, so LED revenues will reach a peak of $17 billion in 2018, and After reaching the highest shipments in 2019, it began to slowly decline.
After 2020, there are two factors that will lead to a decline in LED demand. One is that the amount of illumination per unit has increased significantly, and the other is that the life of LED devices is much greater than other prior art. Traditional light bulbs will be replaced once every 1-2 years, and LED lights will be replaced every 10 years. Therefore, the demand for replacement will drop sharply, and the replacement demand and growth ratio of artificial light sources in the world will drop sharply.
Although the production of LEDs will grow substantially in the next five years, the market for production equipment has reached its peak. The over-investment in 2010 and 2011 was mainly due to the subsidies of the mainland mainland government for organic metal chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) equipment, which was caused by the large number of players. In 2010, there were fewer than ten LED manufacturers in the mainland, but there are currently 70, many of whom will not have built their Recrystallization reactor or even sold an LED lamp. If you don't go out, you will disappear one by one after a few years. However, such tightening is necessary and can be expected - the LED industry has always been like this. Therefore, this is why 2012 and 2013 will be the year of low investment in LED equipment. In contrast, many successful LED manufacturers, compared to the purchase of new equipment, will integrate and acquire the above-mentioned failed LED companies, and get production equipment to increase production capacity.
PSS technology increases LED brightness etch/plasma tool demand
In addition to MOCVD, the recent growth of the LED industry has also moved equipment used in related industries to this industry. Most of the light micro-projection and etching techniques in the past few years have been standard semiconductor instruments that have been refurbished or re-adjusted to make LEDs. However, these devices are not completely suitable for LED process requirements. Since 2009, equipment manufacturers have been observed to provide specialized equipment on photolithography or plasma tools. Interestingly, traditional semiconductor equipment vendors have not set foot on this. industry.
This type of specialized equipment has emerged because in the past, when manufacturing LEDs, the equipment used was similar, regardless of manufacturing differences. The prospects of equipment users are different from the purchase of equipment, so operators can be divided into two categories - some people want to minimize production costs, so reduce capital expenditures, choose the cheapest equipment; others In other cases, it is considered worthwhile to invest in higher-order equipment because these equipments have the best reliability and can provide lower maintenance costs.
Although some new mainland mainland players belong to the former, the mainland China and other regions may not be so clear. If you want to make a big difference, it can be said that many mainland mainland LED manufacturers started to buy cheap equipment. However, under the circumstance of time, some mainland Chinese manufacturers have quickly realized that it is necessary to invest in some cases. Higher order specific devices.
LED production tool equipment is mostly a variant of MOCVD, so it is expected that sales of these equipment in 2012 will be lower than in 2010 and 2011. However, graphical sapphire wafer substrate (PSS) technology has driven changes in LED design technology because it can increase the brightness of LEDs. In the past 12 to 18 months, significant changes in the industry have been observed - about 80% of the wafer industry's wafers use PSS technology, which pushes up the need for etching and plasma tools for PSS wafers.
This demand has led to a significant increase in plasma dry etching tools. At present, there are about 280 dry etching equipments for PSS. In addition, there are probably nearly 200 machine installations from 2011 to 2012. The growth of plasma etching tools in 2012 will be very strong and will be higher than in 2011. Before its business model has been established, there will be three types of companies that will purchase PSS technology in the future - first the sapphire wafer manufacturer, then the LED manufacturer who buys standard wafers and then uses PSS technology, and finally the so-called pure At the PSS foundry, the company will buy the substrate, graph it and sell it.
LED process must be similar to semiconductor manufacturers
After the photoresist is covered with the pattern, the plasma plasma etching technique is performed. Currently, the alignment device and the stepping machine using the mask are used, so the sales amount of the above equipment is also long, but these devices are not completely suitable for the process. . The aligner of the reticle strives to provide a solution tailored to the PSS process. The stepper also faces the problem of how to fit the entire wafer size pattern without cross-section. The PSS yield of traditional 2 å‹ wafers is about 80-93%, but if it is expanded to 4 å‹ wafers, the yield will drop to 40-70%, so it needs to be like nano-light lithography (NIL). New technology of the class. In the next six months, various enterprise solutions and PSS manufacturers using NIL will emerge, as this will reduce the cost of PSS and increase the size of the wafer.
However, for LED manufacturers to promote LED solid-state lighting (Solid-state Illumination), it is not enough to increase the number of production equipment. In the end, the cost must be reduced, and the performance and reliability must be improved. To achieve this goal, LED manufacturers need to slowly become more similar to traditional semiconductor manufacturers - need to focus more on the details, but also need more Automation technology and more manufacturing management software, more manufacturing process control and more modular systems to achieve economies of scale.
The more companies that adjust their processes to the patterns of today's semiconductor market, the more they can beat their rivals and then push down on lower costs. Interestingly, it is observed that some mainland Chinese manufacturers are completely opposite to traditional semiconductor manufacturers. The company has established a clean room that is not clean. Most of them rely on labor manual technology and pay less attention to details, but this phenomenon will soon change. Because many companies have realized that as long as they operate in this way, there is probably no way to achieve profitability and sales efficiency and yield. These companies are not changing quickly or disappearing quickly. After the new LED companies are integrated with each other, the manufacturing technology will change. After that, the LED industry will be able to reach a certain scale and start deploying related technologies.
(This article is reproduced on the Internet. The texts and opinions expressed in this article have not been confirmed by this site, nor do they represent the position of Gaogong LED. Readers need to verify the relevant content by themselves.)
According to statistics, although LED has not entered the general lighting market on a large scale, the latest equipment demand for manufacturing lighting devices has reached a peak in the past two years. From 2010 to 2012, LED manufacturers spent 1.9 billion, 1.7 billion and 600 million dollars on advanced manufacturing equipment.
It is foreseeable that in the second half of 2013, the industry will start investing in LED equipment. Therefore, in 2014, LED equipment will experience substantial growth again, but its growth will be limited, and it is likely to be the last large investment in the LED industry. cycle. After that, the market for production equipment will shrink, and the replacement of lighting equipment will be the main driver.
The next wave of equipment investment can be seen as the lighting industry's preparation for the ultimate application of traditional lighting, in the near future, this investment will lead to a substantial increase in LED semiconductor material chip revenue - in 2012 ~ In 2018, the overall wafer shipments will grow by nearly four times. Among them, the general lighting chip growth is strong. After 2018, the proportion of LEDs in general lighting applications will grow from near zero to 50%, and LEDs will account for 80% of all lighting tools, so LED revenues will reach a peak of $17 billion in 2018, and After reaching the highest shipments in 2019, it began to slowly decline.
After 2020, there are two factors that will lead to a decline in LED demand. One is that the amount of illumination per unit has increased significantly, and the other is that the life of LED devices is much greater than other prior art. Traditional light bulbs will be replaced once every 1-2 years, and LED lights will be replaced every 10 years. Therefore, the demand for replacement will drop sharply, and the replacement demand and growth ratio of artificial light sources in the world will drop sharply.
Although the production of LEDs will grow substantially in the next five years, the market for production equipment has reached its peak. The over-investment in 2010 and 2011 was mainly due to the subsidies of the mainland mainland government for organic metal chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) equipment, which was caused by the large number of players. In 2010, there were fewer than ten LED manufacturers in the mainland, but there are currently 70, many of whom will not have built their Recrystallization reactor or even sold an LED lamp. If you don't go out, you will disappear one by one after a few years. However, such tightening is necessary and can be expected - the LED industry has always been like this. Therefore, this is why 2012 and 2013 will be the year of low investment in LED equipment. In contrast, many successful LED manufacturers, compared to the purchase of new equipment, will integrate and acquire the above-mentioned failed LED companies, and get production equipment to increase production capacity.
PSS technology increases LED brightness etch/plasma tool demand
In addition to MOCVD, the recent growth of the LED industry has also moved equipment used in related industries to this industry. Most of the light micro-projection and etching techniques in the past few years have been standard semiconductor instruments that have been refurbished or re-adjusted to make LEDs. However, these devices are not completely suitable for LED process requirements. Since 2009, equipment manufacturers have been observed to provide specialized equipment on photolithography or plasma tools. Interestingly, traditional semiconductor equipment vendors have not set foot on this. industry.
This type of specialized equipment has emerged because in the past, when manufacturing LEDs, the equipment used was similar, regardless of manufacturing differences. The prospects of equipment users are different from the purchase of equipment, so operators can be divided into two categories - some people want to minimize production costs, so reduce capital expenditures, choose the cheapest equipment; others In other cases, it is considered worthwhile to invest in higher-order equipment because these equipments have the best reliability and can provide lower maintenance costs.
Although some new mainland mainland players belong to the former, the mainland China and other regions may not be so clear. If you want to make a big difference, it can be said that many mainland mainland LED manufacturers started to buy cheap equipment. However, under the circumstance of time, some mainland Chinese manufacturers have quickly realized that it is necessary to invest in some cases. Higher order specific devices.
LED production tool equipment is mostly a variant of MOCVD, so it is expected that sales of these equipment in 2012 will be lower than in 2010 and 2011. However, graphical sapphire wafer substrate (PSS) technology has driven changes in LED design technology because it can increase the brightness of LEDs. In the past 12 to 18 months, significant changes in the industry have been observed - about 80% of the wafer industry's wafers use PSS technology, which pushes up the need for etching and plasma tools for PSS wafers.
This demand has led to a significant increase in plasma dry etching tools. At present, there are about 280 dry etching equipments for PSS. In addition, there are probably nearly 200 machine installations from 2011 to 2012. The growth of plasma etching tools in 2012 will be very strong and will be higher than in 2011. Before its business model has been established, there will be three types of companies that will purchase PSS technology in the future - first the sapphire wafer manufacturer, then the LED manufacturer who buys standard wafers and then uses PSS technology, and finally the so-called pure At the PSS foundry, the company will buy the substrate, graph it and sell it.
LED process must be similar to semiconductor manufacturers
After the photoresist is covered with the pattern, the plasma plasma etching technique is performed. Currently, the alignment device and the stepping machine using the mask are used, so the sales amount of the above equipment is also long, but these devices are not completely suitable for the process. . The aligner of the reticle strives to provide a solution tailored to the PSS process. The stepper also faces the problem of how to fit the entire wafer size pattern without cross-section. The PSS yield of traditional 2 å‹ wafers is about 80-93%, but if it is expanded to 4 å‹ wafers, the yield will drop to 40-70%, so it needs to be like nano-light lithography (NIL). New technology of the class. In the next six months, various enterprise solutions and PSS manufacturers using NIL will emerge, as this will reduce the cost of PSS and increase the size of the wafer.
However, for LED manufacturers to promote LED solid-state lighting (Solid-state Illumination), it is not enough to increase the number of production equipment. In the end, the cost must be reduced, and the performance and reliability must be improved. To achieve this goal, LED manufacturers need to slowly become more similar to traditional semiconductor manufacturers - need to focus more on the details, but also need more Automation technology and more manufacturing management software, more manufacturing process control and more modular systems to achieve economies of scale.
The more companies that adjust their processes to the patterns of today's semiconductor market, the more they can beat their rivals and then push down on lower costs. Interestingly, it is observed that some mainland Chinese manufacturers are completely opposite to traditional semiconductor manufacturers. The company has established a clean room that is not clean. Most of them rely on labor manual technology and pay less attention to details, but this phenomenon will soon change. Because many companies have realized that as long as they operate in this way, there is probably no way to achieve profitability and sales efficiency and yield. These companies are not changing quickly or disappearing quickly. After the new LED companies are integrated with each other, the manufacturing technology will change. After that, the LED industry will be able to reach a certain scale and start deploying related technologies.
(This article is reproduced on the Internet. The texts and opinions expressed in this article have not been confirmed by this site, nor do they represent the position of Gaogong LED. Readers need to verify the relevant content by themselves.)
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